RIA M&A transactions declined 17% to 77 in the third quarter, down from 93 a year ago, ending a seven‑quarter streak of record‑setting activity, according to DeVoe & Company’s Q3 2026 DeVoe RIA Deal Book.
The firm now expects full‑year RIA M&A to finish between 320 and 340 transactions, compared with 2025’s record of 322. That implies roughly 76 to 96 transactions in the fourth quarter, compared with 81 in Q4 2025.
After a record first quarter, activity slowed over the next two quarters, and the firm said in September that transaction volume would likely finish 2026 below 2025. Its forecast at that time was roughly 317 transactions for the year.
As of Sept. 22, 72 RIA transactions had been announced during Q3, down from 89 in the same period last year. The final third‑quarter count brought this year’s total through September to 244. Another 78 transactions would match last year’s annual record, and 79 would set a new high.
Among the other key data points in the new report, firms with over $5 billion in assets under management (AUM), which the firm calls “mega sellers,” announced 41 transactions through September, already surpassing every prior full‑year total.
Small sellers, defined as firms with $100 million to $500 million in AUM, remained active, but their 36% market share through September put them on pace for their lowest full‑year share on record.
Consolidators announced 129 transactions through September, representing 53% of the market, their largest share since 2021, according to the report. RIA buyers accounted for 71 transactions and 29% market share during the same period.
Independent broker‑dealers have also broadened the options for advisors seeking to sell their practices or transfer ownership, according to the report. Some buy practices directly, while others operate RIAs with employee advisors or offer financing for ownership transitions. These arrangements allow advisors to sell or arrange succession while remaining on their existing platforms, the company said.
Higher borrowing costs may affect acquisition prices and payment structures, according to the company. The firm said sellers could face requests to finance part of a deal or receive payments contingent on future performance, depending on the buyer and the seller’s earnings.
Understanding The Decline
The quarter’s 17% decline “surprised us, and it sent us back to the drawing board to understand why,” David DeVoe, Founder and CEO of DeVoe & Company, told Wealth Solutions Report by email.
Referring to smaller sellers, he said, “This is a loss of market share, not a retreat from M&A. Small seller volume remains healthy, but the other segments are expanding faster.”
He pointed to spikes in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of market volatility, as a factor in owners’ decisions to postpone sales.
“Every announced deal reflects a decision to sell made six to 18 months earlier.” — David DeVoe, Founder and CEO, DeVoe & Company
He added, “Every announced deal reflects a decision to sell made six to 18 months earlier. When we looked back, the U.S.‑Iran conflict drove a sharp VIX spike in March 2026, following earlier spikes tied to tariffs and AI valuations.”
“Conversations with our clients confirmed what the data suggested. Smaller RIAs are typically founder‑led, and the same leaders evaluating a transaction often manage the firm’s most important client relationships. When volatility demanded more client communication, M&A moved down the priority list. Larger, professionally managed firms kept their plans moving. What first looked like the biggest surprise turned out to have a clear rationale. Those decisions were delayed, not abandoned.”
Explaining the higher forecast, he said, “First, the third quarter closed stronger than our September count suggested.”
In his Oct. 14 email, he continued, “Second, October is off to a strong start. M&A is up 2% as of today versus Oct. 14, 2025, which suggests the compression we warned about may already be easing.”
He added, “Third, the lag that created the slowdown now points to a rebound, as owners who paused during the volatility revisit their decisions. DeVoe & Company alone expects to close more than 15 client transactions over the next six months.”
Jeff Berman, Contributing Editor and Reporter at Wealth Solutions Report, can be reached at jeff.berman@wealthsolutionsreport.com.
