RIA M&A transactions have declined 19% so far in the third quarter, putting Q3 on pace to potentially end a seven-quarter streak of record-setting activity, according to DeVoe & Company.
After a record first quarter, activity slowed over the next two quarters, and DeVoe said 2026 transaction volume will likely finish below 2025. As of Tuesday, 72 RIA transactions had been announced during Q3, down from 89 in the same period last year.
The 93 transactions announced during the first quarter matched the all-time quarterly record and represented a 24% increase from 75 in Q1 2025. But the firm said in July that activity slowed to 74 transactions in Q2, only one more than in the same period of 2025.
DeVoe attributed the slowdown to RIA owners delaying sale decisions amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, rather than a change in the long-term drivers of RIA M&A.
DeVoe said announced transactions typically reflect sale decisions made six to 18 months earlier, and that tariffs, the war with Iran, gasoline price increases and other economic shocks caused some advisors to pause sale plans.
The firm said a professionally managed sale process typically takes about six months, while a do-it-yourself transaction can take 12 to 18 months, making announced deals a lagging indicator of an owner’s decision to sell.
DeVoe said market volatility may also have contributed to the slowdown. The VIX spiked after tariff announcements in April 2025, and the firm cited renewed uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran conflict in March 2026. Given the lag between a sale decision and an announced deal, DeVoe said those events likely affected Q2 and Q3 transaction counts.
“RIA owners have not abandoned their plans to sell. They simply delayed the timing.” — David DeVoe, Founder and CEO, DeVoe & Company
DeVoe expects the pullback to be temporary, citing succession needs, demand for scale and continued buyer interest.
He told Wealth Solutions Report by email, “There are several indicators that M&A should bounce back soon, but we may not be through this zone where RIAs paused their decision to sell.” But he said, “Our pipeline at DeVoe & Company is extremely robust. We are on track to close more than 15 transactions in the next six months. Many buyers indicate they have similarly strong pipelines.”
However, he explained, “There was an extended period that likely drove delayed decisions to sell, and we may still see some compression for the next month or more. September is on track to be an unusually weak month, so we may not have yet hit the bottom of this slowdown.”
He added, “The recent interest rate increase might have a muted effect on activity too.”
DeVoe said he expects approximately 78 transactions in Q4 this year, down from 81 in Q4 last year.
“Based on our current count, that would put 2026 at approximately 317 transactions, about five below last year’s record of 322,” he told WSR. But he said, “It is a close call, and the final tally will depend on transactions completed and reported in the remaining days of September and through year-end.”
DeVoe said his firm’s initial forecast for 2025 was under 300 transactions, but the year ended at a record 322.
“Coming off a strong second half of 2025, we started 2026 expecting close to 355 deals. After market volatility spiked this spring, we lowered our forecast to 315.”
Jeff Berman, Contributing Editor and Reporter at Wealth Solutions Report, can be reached at jeff.berman@wealthsolutionsreport.com.
